Well, that was fun. We had our first full slate of college football games and that meant Ohio State was in action.
And it wasn’t just any game, it was a titanic clash between two top-five teams, with the Buckeyes coming out on top with a hard-fought win over Notre Dame that had the team display toughness and grit.
But, the national perception is that OSU didn’t look like a team destined for greatness this year, largely because of the struggles on offense at times, a side of the ball that was supposed to be its strength.
With some data now to go on, ESPN has updated its FPI predictions on the percentage chance of Ohio State’s remaining games, and we like to follow where the trends are going.
We’ll continue to check in on it throughout the year.
Here’s how the win over Notre Dame affected OSU’s chances of winning each of its remaining games according to the ESPN FPI.
Saturday, Sept. 10, vs. Arkansas State Ohio Stadium (Columbus) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.4% (down from 99.3%) All-Time Series: First Matchup Projected running record: 2-0
Saturday, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo Ohio Stadium (Columbus) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.4% (up from 98.0%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 3-0 Projected running record: 3-0
Saturday, Sept. 24, vs. Wisconsin Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 90.5% (down from 92.0%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 61-18-5 Projected running record: 4-0
Saturday, Oct. 1, vs. Rutgers Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0% (down from 98.5%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0 Projected running record: 5-0
Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.3% (down from 83.1%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 35-15 Projected running record: 6-0
Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.9% (up from 95.0%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-15-3 Projected running record: 7-0
Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.5% (down from 82.9%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 22-14 Projected running record: 8-0
Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.8% (down from 96.8%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 64-14-1 Projected running record: 9-0
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.7% (down from 98.0%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 77-12-5 Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 89.7% (down from 90.6%) All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0 Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted Winner: Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability: 80.3% (down from 84.8%) All-Time Series: OSU Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0 trails 51-59-6