The (Under) Dogs Are Barking Week 3

Week 3 is upon us, and as a guy who plays the dogs, I love this week’s slate of games.

It was hard to whittle it down to my three favorite plays, but some late line movement provided a degree of clarity.

I’m always going to try to pick teams that are at least three-point underdogs, preferably even bigger.

My favorite play all week has been the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Los Angeles Chargers, but when Justin Herbert was listed as doubtful on Friday,

the line swung from +7 to +3. And while I still love the Jags at this number (call it a bonus pick), I couldn’t put it among my top three picks.

We’re off to a 5-1 start, and this week I’m going against Super Bowl-quality teams. As always, hold your nose and believe…

COLTS +5 ½ VS. CHIEFS I know, I know. The Indianapolis Colts could and probably should be 0-2 and put up an absolute stinker last week, getting shut out by the Jags (we were on the right side of that one in last week’s blog). 

COLTS +5 ½ VS. CHIEFS But they return home with a chance to change their narrative and season direction against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Colts D is still without tackle monster Shaq Leonard, but the offense gets its top receiver Michael Pittman back,

and Jonathan Taylor should find plenty of room to operate, especially with no Willie Gay, who begins his four-game suspension.

Here’s the stat of the week: teams coming off a shutout, catching at least 3½ points in a non-division matchup are 51-14-3 (78%) over the last 30 years or so.

The Colts will be focused and angry. They will look nothing like a winless team on Sunday.

COMMANDERS +6 VS. EAGLES The Philadelphia Eagles’ stock couldn’t be higher after Jalen Hurts dissected the Minnesota Vikings’ defense in the first half in prime time, and the defense helped Kirk Cousins live up to his Monday Night reputation.

COMMANDERS +6 VS. EAGLES Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders are coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions, and their defense looks to be toothless against the explosive Eagles.

I say the line should be 3 or 3½. This is a tough divisional road game against a rival on a short week.

Carson Wentz gets a chance to prove something to his former team,

but he’s always a wildcard and could break our hearts late with one of his signature turnovers.

Still, I think they keep this one close, and it wouldn’t shock me if they pull the upset.