Ranking NFL divisions by their competitiveness before the 2023 draft

The only way to get into the NFL playoffs for sure is to win your division. So, it’s better for teams to try to win their league than to hope for a wild-card spot. 18 of the last 23 Super Bowl winners also won their division, and 11 of those teams won their division since 2010.

But not every split is the same. Some are top-heavy, with a clear favourite and three average teams behind it. Others, on the other hand, are more close, with most or even all four teams in the running for first place.

As the NFL season heads towards the draft, we looked at each of the eight divisions and used a total score to rank them from least competitive to most competitive. To figure this out, we looked at BetMGM’s chance for each team to win its division as well as the expected number of wins for each team. Then, we put together six important pieces of information:

The gap in odds between the team with the best chances and each of the other three teams.

The gap between the number of wins for the team with the most and each of the other three teams.

How likely it is to win the division on average.

From there, we were able to figure out which divisions are really up for grabs and which ones look like they are already decided months before the season starts. All of this could change based on how the rest of the spring and summer go before Week 1.

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